Radar
Top traders by day, week, month and all time, in politics, sports, crypto and more. Each one gets a 1–5★ rating with the method published, and a clear “not enough data” label when the record is too short.
For Polymarket traders
Follow skill,
Follow skill,
not luck.
Most trackers rank Polymarket traders by profit. We tested that: it predicted nothing about the next 45 days. Edgewatch rates traders on what held up, alerts you when they move, and tells you whether the move still matters.
Free to start. Information only: no trading, deposits or wagering in the app. Not affiliated with Polymarket.
Edge Report · October 2026
We check if our ratings work. In public.
We rated 132 top traders using only results from before September 1, then measured what they actually earned over the next 45 days. Here is what we found, including what didn’t work.
−0.06
Ranking by raw profit
Rank correlation with next-period return. Effectively zero: past PnL told us nothing.
+0.22
Edgewatch star rating
Modest, but real: top fifth beat bottom fifth by +15.9 pts (95% range +6.2 to +30.3).
25%
“Not enough data” traders
Profitable next period, versus about two-thirds of rated traders. Small samples are a red flag.
Top fifth minus bottom fifth, next 45 days
Dot: return gap between the best- and worst-scored fifth of traders. Line: 95% range. A range crossing zero is not proven.
Show as table
| Ranking by | Spearman | Top − bottom | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edgewatch stars | +0.22 | +17.9% | +6.2% to +30.3% |
| Skill evidence | +0.18 | +4.3% | −6.6% to +14.7% |
| Raw PnL ranking | −0.06 | −1.2% | −13.4% to +12.8% |
| Past ROI | −0.09 | −8.8% | −19.9% to +3.7% |
What didn’t work: our statistical “skill evidence” score (a sign-randomization test) did not beat chance as a ranking. Its range crosses zero, so we show it as context on a profile and never rank by it. Traders labelled “proven” stayed proven only 14% of the time, versus an 11% base rate.
Limits: traders were picked from today’s leaderboards, which favours recent winners; 132 traders and 45 days give wide ranges. All signals share the same bias, so the comparison between them is fair. Read the full report →
What’s inside
Know who to trust. Know when they move.
Built natively for iPhone and Android, with data straight from Polymarket’s public feeds and the Polygon blockchain.
Smart Money
For each open market, where 3★+ top traders are positioned versus the market price. “Divergence” highlights markets where rated traders are much more confident than the crowd.
Alerts with context
Not just “whale bought $20K”. Size versus their usual order, first trade in a new category, other traders you follow on the same side, and how far the price has moved since they bought.
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“What if I had followed them for 30 days with $1,000, two minutes late?” See whether a trader’s edge survives the delay and slippage, before you decide anything yourself.
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Your traders and the latest alert on the Home Screen and Lock Screen, and a Live Activity while you follow an open position. (iOS; Android widgets are on the roadmap.)
Plain-English profiles
A one-line style for each trader (“buys favourites at 55–75¢, holds to resolution”) and a weekly brief of what your traders did. It explains. It never recommends.
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Every number is public data
Trades and positions come from Polymarket’s public APIs and the blockchain. Each screen shows when it last updated.
We publish our misses
The Edge Report reruns every month, including when results get worse. See the method.
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FAQ
Questions, answered straight
Will following top traders make me money?
We can’t promise that, and nobody honest can. Our star rating predicted next-period returns modestly in our latest test (rank correlation +0.22), and individual traders still lose. Use Edgewatch to decide who is worth watching, then make your own decisions.
Can I place bets or trades in Edgewatch?
No. Edgewatch is an information and analytics app. There are no deposits, wallets, orders or wagering in the app, and no affiliate links. A “View on Polymarket” link opens Polymarket’s own website so you can verify a trade.
Are you affiliated with Polymarket?
No. Edgewatch is independent and reads Polymarket’s public data and the Polygon blockchain. Polymarket is a trademark of its owner.
How are the stars calculated?
From a trader’s last 300 settled or closed positions: win rate (40%), return on money staked (30%), how many positions back it up (20%) and profit factor (10%). Fewer than 15 settled positions means no rating. Full details on the methodology page.
What is “skill evidence”?
A statistical test that asks how often a record this good would appear if every bet had randomly gone the other way. It describes the past. In our test it did not beat chance as a ranking, so we show it as context and don’t rank by it.
How fast are alerts?
Trades stream in live from Polymarket’s public feed and the blockchain, and alerts are grouped so a trader splitting one order into ten fills sends you one notification, not ten. Every alert shows how far the price has moved since the trade.
How do I cancel?
Subscriptions are managed by Apple or Google. On iPhone: Settings → your name → Subscriptions. On Android: Google Play → Profile → Payments & subscriptions. Deleting the app does not cancel a subscription.
Who is Edgewatch for?
Adults (18+) who follow prediction markets and want a sanity check on who is actually good. If prediction markets aren’t legal where you live, Edgewatch is still only information, but please follow your local laws.